THE YEAR OF 2023

 


The Lichun, fire element is the strongest, followed by wood element. Weather was relatively cold for the first 2 months of this year, which is rare where weather is hot especially after chinese new year. In the whole Bazi, there is no metal element, and 文相濡 cautioned against buying financial stocks at the end of 2022. 

On 10 March, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, dragging along Signature bank and First Republic Bank. This has also sparked fear in Credit Suisse and global markets turned bearish since. This is the final year of the 八运, and looking at Hong Kong, it doesn't look good as well. 



2003 - SARS in Hong Kong causing a bear market. 
1983 - Deng Xiao Ping visited Queen Elizabeth to discuss about the transfer of sovereignty of Hong Kong, and market turned jittery.
1963 - 

Martin suggested a low in stock market on 10 April 2023. 

Benner suggested that commodities will make a low in 2023, in line with Felix forecast, hence, oil is likely to go lower to US$50 per barrel. 

Jupiter suggested a low also somewhere in Feb & Mar of 2023, waiting to be verified later. 

What's interesting is the seasonal weakness of the market:

Jan-Mar period
  • March 2023 - Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse collapsed
  • March 2000 - Dot com bubble crashed
  • January 1990 - Nikkei225 crashed
  • January 1980 - Gold crashed
  • February 1720 - Mississippi bubble crashed
  • February 1637 - Tulip Mania crashed

Aug-Oct period
  • 17 August 1998 - Russian sovereign bond default
  • 27 October 1997 - Asian stock market crashed
  • 10 October 1987 - NYSE fell 20% in a day
  • 28 & 29 October 1929 - NYSE fell 20% on both days
  • October 1873 - NYSE crashed triggering global recession
  • September 1720 - South Sea bubble crashed


We are still waiting to see whether 6 September 2023 is really the low in the stock market. turns out to be a relative low, rather than an absolute low. 


Using the composite index, it does point a bullish outlook, which i had subsequently published an update titled "ROADMAP FOR THE UPCOMING BULL" advising that the bull is coming. I think the decennial pattern is also helpful here that 2023 looking back is bullish.  


The one driving most of the bull run were the magnificent 7, they are AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN. 

Looking back, true enough, 交叉大运时, is in fact not good for Hong Kong, and Hang Seng continue to fall lower. 


















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