The Year of 1993
The lichun bazi for 1993 was 4 February 1993 3:37AM. There were a lot of conflict in that year as well as natural disasters. However, in terms of economic progress, there were a lot of positive for that year. On 8 March 1993, the moon moved nearest to Earth - perigee, making the moon 14% bigger than usual, the next time it will make perigee again would be 2008.
From Feng Shui perspective, the seventh star was the ruling star of 1993, as well as the 20-year cycle. 七赤重叠入中, we do see quite a fair bit of serious natural disasters occurring around the world.
1. The Braer Storm was the most intense extratropical cyclone ever recorded over the northern Atlantic Ocean, as well as the strongest recorded worldwide.
2. The Great Blizzard of 1993 strikes the eastern U.S. Record cold temperatures were seen across portions of the Southern United States and Eastern United States in the wake of this storm.
3. The Great Flood of Mississippi, the flooded area totaled around 30,000 square miles (78,000 km2) and was the worst such U.S. disaster since the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927.
4. The World Health Organization declares tuberculosis a global emergency.
5. Super Typhoon Koryn was the most intense tropical cyclone worldwide in 1993, Koryn caused serious damage across the Caroline Islands, the Philippines, and the People's Republic of China.
6. The 1993 southwest-off Hokkaido earthquake, it had a magnitude of 7.7 on the moment magnitude scale.
7. The 1993 Latur earthquake struck India, it measured 6.2 on the moment magnitude scale, and approximately 10,000 people died.
Moving to I-Ching, the Hexagram for 1993 was Hexagram40 - Deliverance or taking apart.
On a whole, it's an auspicious hexagram. What the Hexagram40 says is taking problems apart and give a relief. From the economic point of view, there were 1 major progress in terms of international trade, North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) passes through the legislative houses of US, Canada and Mexico, NAFTA was given a go.
On the Europe, the European Economic Community has created the European single market to remove trade barriers. On a whole, free trade is generally beneficial because any distortion from the government in the form of tariff or duty usually result in a deadweight loss and affect the wellbeing of the European society as a whole.
Again the hexagram was relatively accurate in depicting the bullish environment of 1993. 妻财持世, 2个火, 生2个土 (妻财), 2个土又生1个金, 只有1个木克2个土. The S&P 500 was up about +7%, with very little volatility, while the Asian tigers were roaring. The FBMKLCI also staged an extremely powerful bull +98%. The record GDP growth rate and the double digit export numbers brought in a lot of money into the economy stimulating the financial markets.
South East Asian countries benefited as their economies were still dominated by commodities, and supported by the insatiable hunger for raw materials and commodities attributed to the 10% GDP growth rate of China throughout the 1990s.
The composite also showed we are slowly recovering from the cyclical bear market.
Year 13 was quiet in the Western hemisphere, but not so in the Eastern hemisphere.
In general the year ending 3 is up, which is true for SPX as well as FBMKLCI, the year 13 itself is also generally bullish. The US also recorded good growth and current account surplus during that time, while the Asian tigers were doing really well, and Malaysia itself was up about +98% in 1993.
Malaysia's current account position actually had started to worsen around 1991, but the market continue to be bullish until 1997. This case strengthen the reason to understand cycle itself, because while fundamental has pointed towards a downside as early as 1991 or 1992, bears would have been killed in the 1993 bull run.
The time to short is in fact what the cycle says of the year ending 7 as well what my composite cycle pointed out.
Comments
Post a Comment